Category Archives: Economy

ELECTIONS PRESIDENTIELLES AMERICAINES: RIEN N’EST JOUE

2-candidats

Les élections présidentielles américaines sont certainement les plus surprenantes depuis celles d’Abraham Lincoln à la Présidence des Etats Unis.

Elles se déroulent à un moment où le monde n’a jamais été, en matière d’affaires étrangères, aussi violemment confronté à des menaces de déstabilisation de ses institutions depuis la seconde guerre mondiale.

Alors que d’autres élections de même importance vont avoir lieu dans d’autres pays comme en France, il est bon de se poser la question de savoir ou tout cela pourrait nous mener tant sur les plans nationaux qu’internationaux.

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Vaccine Shortage and Mosquito Borne Disease: Yellow Fiver Threats to Africa and China

Mosquito Borne disease: Managing the pandemic threat in Africa and in Brazil

aedes-aegypti-mosquito

For much of the past year, the Zika virus has dominated the news cycle and commanded international attention. With the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro less than two weeks away, and two cases of the virus that could be unrelated to travel reported in Florida, that is unlikely to change any time soon.

But another mosquito-borne disease, yellow fever, is working its way (albeit more quietly) through the African nations of Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

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Brexit: From a Regional to a Global Impact

The impact of the June 23rd Brexit vote will go far beyond the response from the Global markets: Implications of the decision are not only economic.
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The new deal for Europe

The current banking crisis is an unintentional victim of a much deeper problem, that of the sovereign debt crisis. This debt crisis, and consequently that of the banks, is what must take priority over other issues.

These days, no-one seems to give a genuine thought to how we could solve the financial and banking crisis that is shaking up the old continent. Politicians seem to be taking their time, waiting for decisions to be made, neglecting to take into account that economic cycles often move much faster than political ones.

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G8, G20 and IMF: How to deal with the current crisis?

G8 & IMF - Frankfarnel.com

Consumer prices are rising worldwide, for practically all products and raw materials. This state of affairs is starting to weigh heavily on households and salaries, as well as on the social and political balance of certain countries, creating pressures that must be addressed immediately.

In the wake of the G8/G20 and IMF meetings, the question being asked now is whether these organisations will manage to restore the financial and monetary stability required to prevent a new financial crisis that the economies of the world do not seem to be able to cope with.

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Japan: the geo-political and geo-financial impacts

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JapanMore devastating than that of Hanshin in 1995, the Tohoku earthquake and the tsunami that followed represent the worst crisis of this type in the archipelago since the Second World War. But outside of relief and urgent humanitarian care, the place of Japan in the world must also be evaluated according to the foreseeable economic impact of the new disaster on the third world economy.

This catastrophe without precedent of human, economic and financial consequences threatens the country’s economy and thus important geo-political and financial equilibriums, internally, in the region, but also far beyond.

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Worrying activities on the Exchange rate market

 We are all witnessing today very strong activities on the monetary markets and an unprecedented appreciation of the Euro versus the Dollar.

Is this situation to stay? To answer this question, one must look at the current macro situation of our economies. The US FED has started an inflationary policy in an effort to deal with a series of urgent issues. The first is related to the job market where almost 17% of active Americans are either jobless or work on a part-time basis. The second is linked to the junk credits inherited from the real estate market and that were partly responsible for the world financial crisis. Those junk credits will simply never be reimbursed by any “regular” channels. Indeed, since no one had forecasted the magnitude of the problem, there were no organization put into place that had been foreseen to be in a position to act in case of a major failure such as the one we encountered. It will be therefore for the US Government to tackle that issue, by reimbursing those junk credits, and those are not small amounts. On an international level, one must note that other developing countries, since September 21st, that are known commercial partners with the USA, have also launched strategies of inflationary policies in order to keep the level of the exports aligned with the dollar therefore maintaining a lower level of their currencies. With the exception of China, another example is the one of Japan that intervened drastically on September 15th. , purchasing more than $ 25 billion on the exchange market. The reaction of the European Central Bank has been very different. The ECB decided pretty much to do nothing and did purchase very low levels of sovereign bounds recently. In effect, the ECB seems to believe that at a macro-economic level the European economy is not doing that bad with respect to the growth levels showed by a limited number of European countries such as the one of Germany that represent 35% of the European GDP. If we take a further example of the Gas consumption levels, the one of Europe increased by 10%, when it increased by 16% in Germany on the first semester of 2010 compared to the one of 2009. As a consequence, if the ECB was to over-evaluate the Euro, this could have catastrophic consequences since no countries apart from Germany and the Netherlands could be in a position to sustain such as situation. The result of such a behavior would be an immediate increase of unemployment that is not sustainable given Europe today’s unemployment rates and forecasts. Furthermore, the consequences of an over-evaluated Euro could simply be the destruction of the Euro zone. However, the position of the ECB might not be a sustainable one: the structural difficulties the Euro are linked to the crisis of public financing such as the ones of Greece, Ireland or Portugal and they are lasting. There are other fragile economies in Europe such as Italy or Spain that require a thorough monitoring. France situation is most likely to become central point at the time of the upcoming Presidential elections in 2012.

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